The experience of using the statistical methodology in our country counts more than 30 years. This is one of the most common methods for calculating lightning protection in the design of high-voltage power lines, industrial plants and high-rise structures for various purposes. Thismethod formed the basis for calculating typical protection zones for cable, single and double rod lightning rods. Which are included into the existing regulating documents on lightning protection in the Russian Federation.
Calculation of lightning protection based on the statistical method can be used, if it is necessary to calculate and carry out a choice of a lightning rod of any degree of reliability. However, its initial data can not be considered reliable if it is necessary to create a protection the reliability of which would exceed 0.999. In this connection, the results of calculations of the protection of a higher degree of reliability should be considered only approximately. Nevertheless, in 2009 this method was approved in its general form by Gostehnadzor and recommended for use by Technical Circulation No. 25/09 of RosElektromontazh Association.
It should be noted that the reliability of lightning protection, which would exceed 0.999 is not particularly in demand. When installing a lightning rod with a height of about 1 m, it will take no more than 1 lightning strike per year. Thus, with lightning protection with a reliability of 0.999, you can expect no more than 1 lightning breakthrough. These are quite satisfactory results.
Proceeding from the foregoing, the question about the need to conduct a detailed analysis of the statistical methodology for calculating lightning protection arises. After all, it has been used in Russia for a long time and its results are quite satisfactory. At first glance, there is no need for such a detailed consideration of this issue.
The reason for such a thorough analysis lies in the ongoing attempts to introduce the requirements of the IEC standard on the territory of Russia. While the authors of this document accepted in Europe do not give any scientific explanations of the effectiveness of the methods of calculating lightning protection proposed in it.
The material was created on the basis of an article by Professor Eduard Meerovich Bazelyan "How to choose lightning rods?". Part 5. Instead of Conclusion"
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